On global summer monsoonal drought mechanics

It is shown that within the framework of a linear five-level quasi-geostrophic steady state global model the middle latitude systems can always have significant influence on the Asian summer monsoonal system through the lower tropospheric monsoonal westerly window region around 80°E. It is hypothesized that quasistationarity of the middle latitude longwave systems results in stronger teleconnections through this window and the consequent monsoon breaks when the phase is right.

Tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstruction over northern Vietnam from Fokienia hodginsii: eighteenth century mega-drought and tropical Pacific influence

We present here the first statistically calibrated and verified tree-ring reconstruction of climate from continental Southeast Asia.The reconstructed variable is March-May (MAM) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) based on ring widths from 22 trees (42 radial cores) of rare and long-lived conifer, Fokienia hodginsii (Po Mu as locally called) from northern Vietnam. This is the first published tree ring chronology from Vietnam as well as the first for this species. Spanning 535 years, this is the longest cross-dated tree-ring series yet produced from continental Southeast Asia. Response analysis revealed that the annual growth of Fokienia at this site was mostly governed by soil moisture in the pre-monsoon season. The reconstruction passed the calibration-verification tests commonly used in dendroclimatology, and revealed two prominent periods of drought in the mid-eighteenth and late-nineteenth enturies. The former lasted nearly 30 years and was concurrent with a similar drought over northwestern Thailand inferred from teak rings, suggesting a ``mega-drought'' extending across Indochina in the eighteenth century. Both of our reconstructed droughts are consistent with the periods of warm sea surface temperature (SST)anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Spatial correlation analyses with global SST indicated that ENSO-like anomalies might play a role in modulating droughts over the region, with El Nio (warm) phases resulting in reduced rainfall. However, significant correlation was also seen with SST over the Indian Ocean and the north Pacific,suggesting that ENSO is not the only factor affecting the climate of the area. Spectral analyses revealed significant peaks in the range of 53.9-78.8 years as well as in the ENSO-variability range of 2.0 to 3.2 years.

A lower bound to the survival probability and an approximate first passage time distribution for Markovian and non-Markovian dynamics in phase space

We derive a very general expression of the survival probability and the first passage time distribution for a particle executing Brownian motion in full phase space with an absorbing boundary condition at a point in the position space, which is valid irrespective of the statistical nature of the dynamics. The expression, together with the Jensen's inequality, naturally leads to a lower bound to the actual survival probability and an approximate first passage time distribution. These are expressed in terms of the position-position, velocity-velocity, and position-velocity variances. Knowledge of these variances enables one to compute a lower bound to the survival probability and consequently the first passage distribution function. As examples, we compute these for a Gaussian Markovian process and, in the case of non-Markovian process, with an exponentially decaying friction kernel and also with a power law friction kernel. Our analysis shows that the survival probability decays exponentially at the long time irrespective of the nature of the dynamics with an exponent equal to the transition state rate constant.

Generalized survival in step fluctuations

The properties of the generalized survival probability, that is, the probability of not crossing an arbitrary location R during relaxation, have been investigated experimentally (via scanning tunneling microscope observations) and numerically. The results confirm that the generalized survival probability decays exponentially with a time constant tau(s)(R). The distance dependence of the time constant is shown to be tau(s)(R)=tau(s0)exp[-R/w(T)], where w(2)(T) is the material-dependent mean-squared width of the step fluctuations. The result reveals the dependence on the physical parameters of the system inherent in the prior prediction of the time constant scaling with R/L-alpha, with L the system size and alpha the roughness exponent. The survival behavior is also analyzed using a contrasting concept, the generalized inside survival S-in(t,R), which involves fluctuations to an arbitrary location R further from the average. Numerical simulations of the inside survival probability also show an exponential time dependence, and the extracted time constant empirically shows (R/w)(lambda) behavior, with lambda varying over 0.6 to 0.8 as the sampling conditions are changed. The experimental data show similar behavior, and can be well fit with lambda=1.0 for T=300 K, and 0.5

Spatial survival probability for one-dimensional fluctuating interfaces in the steady state

We report numerical and analytic results for the spatial survival probability for fluctuating one-dimensional interfaces with Edwards-Wilkinson or Kardar-Parisi-Zhang dynamics in the steady state. Our numerical results are obtained from analysis of steady-state profiles generated by integrating a spatially discretized form of the Edwards-Wilkinson equation to long times. We show that the survival probability exhibits scaling behavior in its dependence on the system size and the "sampling interval" used in the measurement for both "steady-state" and "finite" initial conditions. Analytic results for the scaling functions are obtained from a path-integral treatment of a formulation of the problem in terms of one-dimensional Brownian motion. A "deterministic approximation" is used to obtain closed-form expressions for survival probabilities from the formally exact analytic treatment. The resulting approximate analytic results provide a fairly good description of the numerical data.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Ten-microRNA Expression Signature Predicts Survival in Glioblastoma

Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common and aggressive primary brain tumor with very poor patient median survival. To identify a microRNA (miRNA) expression signature that can predict GBM patient survival, we analyzed the miRNA expression data of GBM patients (n = 222) derived from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) dataset. We divided the patients randomly into training and testing sets with equal number in each group. We identified 10 significant miRNAs using Cox regression analysis on the training set and formulated a risk score based on the expression signature of these miRNAs that segregated the patients into high and low risk groups with significantly different survival times (hazard ratio HR] = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.4-3.8; p < 0.0001). Of these 10 miRNAs, 7 were found to be risky miRNAs and 3 were found to be protective. This signature was independently validated in the testing set (HR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.1-2.8; p = 0.002). GBM patients with high risk scores had overall poor survival compared to the patients with low risk scores. Overall survival among the entire patient set was 35.0% at 2 years, 21.5% at 3 years, 18.5% at 4 years and 11.8% at 5 years in the low risk group, versus 11.0%, 5.5%, 0.0 and 0.0% respectively in the high risk group (HR = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.4-2.8; p < 0.0001). Cox multivariate analysis with patient age as a covariate on the entire patient set identified risk score based on the 10 miRNA expression signature to be an independent predictor of patient survival (HR = 1.120; 95% CI = 1.04-1.20; p = 0.003). Thus we have identified a miRNA expression signature that can predict GBM patient survival. These findings may have implications in the understanding of gliomagenesis, development of targeted therapy and selection of high risk cancer patients for adjuvant therapy.

Survival of the fittest and zero sum games

Competition for available resources is natural amongst coexisting species, and the fittest contenders dominate over the rest in evolution. The. dynamics of this selection is studied using a simple linear model. It has similarities to features of quantum computation, in particular conservation laws leading to destructive interference. Compared to an altruistic scenario, competition introduces instability and eliminates the weaker species in a finite time.

A Transcript Cleavage Factor of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Important for Its Survival

After initiation of transcription, a number of proteins participate during elongation and termination modifying the properties of the RNA polymerase (RNAP). Gre factors are one such group conserved across bacteria. They regulate transcription by projecting their N-terminal coiled-coil domain into the active center of RNAP through the secondary channel and stimulating hydrolysis of the newly synthesized RNA in backtracked elongation complexes. Rv1080c is a putative gre factor (MtbGre) in the genome of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The protein enhanced the efficiency of promoter clearance by lowering abortive transcription and also rescued arrested and paused elongation complexes on the GC rich mycobacterial template. Although MtbGre is similar in domain organization and shares key residues for catalysis and RNAP interaction with the Gre factors of Escherichia coli, it could not complement an E. coli gre deficient strain. Moreover, MtbGre failed to rescue E. coli RNAP stalled elongation complexes, indicating the importance of specific protein-protein interactions for transcript cleavage. Decrease in the level of MtbGre reduced the bacterial survival by several fold indicating its essential role in mycobacteria. Another Gre homolog, Rv3788 was not functional in transcript cleavage activity indicating that a single Gre is sufficient for efficient transcription of the M. tuberculosis genome.

Large rapidity gaps survival probabilities at LHC

We calculate the probability of large rapidity gaps in high energy hadronic collisions using a model based on QCD mini-jets and soft gluon emission down into the infrared region. Comparing with other models we find a remarkable agreement among most predictions.

Enhanced Survival of Probiotic Lactobacillus acidophilus by Encapsulation with Nanostructured Polyelectrolyte Layers through Layer-by-Layer Approach

The encapsulation of probiotic Lactobacillus acidophilus through layer-by-layer self-assembly of polyelectrolytes (PE) chitosan (CHI) and carboxymethyl cellulose (CMC) has been investigated,to enhance its survival m adverse conditions encountered in the GI tract The survival of encapsulated cells in simulated gastric (SGF) and intestinal fluids (SIF) is significant when compared to nonencapsulated cells On sequential exposure to SGF and SIF fox 120 nun, almost complete death of free cells is observed However, for cells coated with three nanolayers of PEs (CHI/CMC/CHI) about 33 log % of the cells (6 log cfu/500 mg) survived under the same conditions The enhanced survival rate of encapsulated L acidophilus can be attributed to the impermeability of polyelectrolyte nanolayers to large enzyme molecules like pepsin, and pancreatin that cause proteolysis and to the stability of the polyelectrolyte nanolayers in gastric and intestinal pH The PE coating also serves to reduce viability losses during freezing and freeze- drying About 73 and 92 log % of uncoated and coated cells survived after freeze:drying, and the losses occurring between freezing and freeze-drying were found to be lower for coated cells

Rodent seed predation: effects on seed survival, recruitment, abundance, and dispersion of bird-dispersed tropical trees

Tropical tree species vary widely in their pattern of spatial dispersion. We focus on how seed predation may modify seed deposition patterns and affect the abundance and dispersion of adult trees in a tropical forest in India. Using plots across a range of seed densities, we examined whether seed predation levels by terrestrial rodents varied across six large-seeded, bird-dispersed tree species. Since inter-specific variation in density-dependent seed mortality may have downstream effects on recruitment and adult tree stages, we determined recruitment patterns close to and away from parent trees, along with adult tree abundance and dispersion patterns. Four species (Canarium resiniferum, Dysoxylum binectariferum, Horsfieldia kingii, and Prunus ceylanica) showed high predation levels (78.5-98.7%) and increased mortality with increasing seed density, while two species, Chisocheton cumingianus and Polyalthia simiarum, showed significantly lower seed predation levels and weak density-dependent mortality. The latter two species also had the highest recruitment near parent trees, with most abundant and aggregated adults. The four species that had high seed mortality had low recruitment under parent trees, were rare, and had more spaced adult tree dispersion. Biotic dispersal may be vital for species that suffer density-dependent mortality factors under parent trees. In tropical forests where large vertebrate seed dispersers but not seed predators are hunted, differences in seed vulnerability to rodent seed predation and density-dependent mortality can affect forest structure and composition.

A full-length bifunctional protein involved in c-di-GMP turnover is required for long-term survival under nutrient starvation in Mycobacterium smegmatis

The bacterial second messenger cyclic diguanosine monophosphate (c-di-GMP) plays an important role in a variety of cellular functions, including biofilm formation, alterations in the cell surface, host colonization and regulation of bacterial flagellar motility, which enable bacteria to survive changing environmental conditions. The cellular level of c-di-GMP is regulated by a balance between opposing activities of diguanylate cyclases (DGCs) and cognate phosphodiesterases (PDE-As). Here, we report the presence and importance of a protein, MSDGC-1 (an orthologue of Rv1354c in Mycobacterium tuberculosis), involved in c-di-GMP turnover in Mycobacterium smegmatis. MSDGC-1 is a multidomain protein, having GAF, GGDEF and EAL domains arranged in tandem, and exhibits both c-di-GMP synthesis and degradation activities. Most other proteins containing GGDEF and EAL domains have been demonstrated to have either DGC or PDE-A activity. Unlike other bacteria, which harbour several copies of the protein involved in c-di-GMP turnover, M. smegmatis has a single genomic copy, deletion of which severely affects long-term survival under conditions of nutrient starvation. Overexpression of MSDGC-1 alters the colony morphology and growth profile of M. smegmatis. In order to gain insights into the regulation of the c-di-GMP level, we cloned individual domains and tested their activities. We observed a loss of activity in the separated domains, indicating the importance of full-length MSDGC-1 for controlling bifunctionality.

Involvement of the Global Regulator H-NS in the Survival of Escherichia coli in Stationary Phase

Long-term batch cultures of Escherichia coli grown in nutrient-rich medium accumulate mutations that provide a growth advantage in the stationary phase (GASP). We have examined the survivors of prolonged stationary phase to identify loci involved in conferring a growth advantage and show that a mutation in the hns gene causing reduced activity of the global regulator H-NS confers a GASP phenotype under specific conditions. The hns-66 allele bears a point mutation within the termination codon of the H-NS open reading frame, resulting in a longer protein that is partially functional. Although isolated from a long-term stationary-phase culture of the parent carrying the rpoS819 allele that results in reduced RpoS activity, the hns-66 survivor showed a growth disadvantage in the early stationary phase (24 to 48 h) when competed against the parent. The hns-66 mutant is also unstable and reverts at a high frequency in the early stationary phase by accumulating second-site suppressor mutations within the ssrA gene involved in targeting aberrant proteins for proteolysis. The mutant was more stable and showed a moderate growth advantage in combination with the rpoS819 allele when competed against a 21-day-old parent. These studies show that H-NS is a target for mutations conferring fitness gain that depends on the genetic background as well as on the stage of the stationary phase.